
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
College Park Campus
Fall Semester 2003
ENCE 627 – Decision
Analysis for Engineering (3 credit)
Tuesdays 3:30 pm – 6:00 pm,
EGR 3102
INSTRUCTOR:
Office Hours: Tu W
1:00 am  3:00 pm
F 2:30 noon
4:30 pm, and by appointment
Office:
0305, Engineering Classroom Building (EGR)
Center for
Technology and Systems Management (CTSM)
Telephone:
(W) 3014053279
Email:
assakkaf@eng.umd.edu
URL:
http://ctsm.umd.edu/assakkaf
TA & GRADER:
Office Hours: T
2:00 pm – 3:15 pm
Room
EGR 1107
Telephone:
(123) 1234567
Email: TA@domain.com
TEXTBOOK: “Making Hard Decisions with
DecisionTools,” by Robert T. Clemen and Terence Reilly, 2nd edition
(revised), Duxbury Press, NY, 2001.
REFERENCES:
 “Decision Making and Forecasting,” by Marshall, K.
T. and Oliver, R. M., McGraw Hill, NY, 1995.
 “Statistics and Reliability for Engineers,” by
Ayyub, B.M., and McCuen, R., CRC Press, FL, 1997.
 “Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and
Design,” Volume II, by Ang, and Tang , John Wiley and Sons, NY, 1975.
 Instructor’s notes.
GRADING: HW (25%), Project (25%) Midterm Exam
(25%), Final Exam (25%).
GENERAL COURSE DESCRIPTION (UMD SCHEDULE OF CLASSES):
Probability basics,
subjective probability, using data, introduction to decision analysis,
elements of decision problems, structuring decisions, making choices,
sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, value of information,
riskbased decision making, multiobjective problems, stochastic dynamic
programming. Applications in engineering and economics.
COURSE OUTLINE & SCHEDULE:

Date 
Topic of Discussion

Source 
1 
September 2 
Introduction to Course (General Overview)
Introduction to Decision Analysis and Decision
Making 
Chapter 1 
2 
September 9 
Probability Basics 
Chapter 7 
3 
September 16 
Subjective Probability 
Chapter 8 
4 
September 23 
Theoretical Probability Models 
Chapter 9 
5 
September 30 
Using Data 
Chapter 10 
6 
October 7 
Elements of Decision Problems 
Chapter 2 
7 
October 14 
Structuring Decisions 
Chapter 3 
8 
October 21 
Making Choices 
Chapter 4 
9 
October 28 
Sensitivity Analysis
MIDTERM EXAM 
Chapter
5 
10 
November 4 
Creative Decision Making 
Chapter 6 
11 
November 11 
Monte Carlo Simulation 
Chapter 11 
12 
November 18 
Value of Information 
Chapter 12 
13 
November 25 
Multiattribute Decision Making, Risk Attitude 
Chapter 13
Handout 
November 2730 **** T H A N K S G I V I N
G B R E AK (NO CLASSES) **** 
14 
December 2 
Review
Project Presentations 

15 
December 9 
Project Presentations 

16 
Dec. 15  20 
FINAL EXAMS
Date, time, and location will be announced 

COURSE WEBSITE:
Students are encourage to access course the web site
at: http://www.ajconline.umd.edu to download course materials such as class
notes, homework sets, and solutions. Timely information will also be posted
on the web site. At initial login, use your wam account name as the
username, and your SID as the password. You are advised to change your
password after your first login. Report any problem with the course web site
to the instructor. For technical problems of the web site, contact the
Instructional Technologies staffs at 0123 Martin Hall.
HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENTS:
Professional presentation of homework assignments is
required. Professional presentation consists of neat and organized solution
of problems on one side of 8.5"x11" papers. Any homework not
complying with professional standards will not be graded and will be
assigned zero credit. The homework assignments are due one week after they
are assigned. Homework will be assigned as the material is covered and will
be collected every Tuesday at the beginning of the lecture period.
Solutions will be available from the TAs and on the class website after the
problems are returned. No assignment will be accepted after the answers
have been posted. Students are encouraged to discuss and formulate
solutions to the problems by working in teams. However, assignments must be
completed and submitted individually. Simply copying the answers from
another student or from a solutions manual is not acceptable and will not be
tolerated. General guidelines for homework are given below:

Use good quality
paper, such as engineering graph paper or collegeruled paper, any color,
with no spiral edges.

Write on only one
side of the paper.

Either pen or pencil
is acceptable.

Include your name,
course, and page number (e.g. 1/3 means 1 of 3) on each sheet.

Staple all pages
together in the upper left corner.

Neatly box all
answers, and include appropriate units for numerical answers.

Show all work (e.g.
no work means no credit will be given).
If the above guidelines are not followed, the TA will
either reject the assignment outright, for extreme cases, or deduct points
for items that do not conform to the specifications.
EXAMS:
All students must take all quizzes and exams including
the final exam. Only extenuating circumstances will be accepted as excuse
for missing an exam. Health related excuses require medical reports
and the signature of a physician that provided treatment.
PROJECT (Term Paper):
Individuals or teams of two are required to work on a
research study on a selected topic in decision and uncertainty analyses,
perform needed tasks, and submit the following as applicable:

Title Page

Executive Summary

Table of Contents

Objectives and scope

Data and Simulation if needed

Methodology summary

Applications

Conclusions

References and Appendices
Professional
presentation of the project report is required that should consist of neat
and organized solutions on one side of 8.5"x11" papers. Computergenerated
plots and printouts are required for all sample, and summary calculations.
The project is due on the last day of classes. 