UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

College Park Campus

Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering

**ENCE 620 - Risk Analysis for Engineering (3)**

**INSTRUCTOR** Professor Bilal M. Ayyub (Dr.
Ibrahim Assakkaf)

Office Hours: 12:30-1:30 pm & appointment,
Room 0305, Eng. Bldg.

301-405-1956, ba@umd.edu (301-405-3279
assakkaf@eng.umd.edu)

**TEXTBOOK**

Risk
Analysis in Engineering and Economics, B. M. Ayyub, Chapman-Hall/CRC Press,
2003.

**REFERENCES**

Probability, Statistics, and Reliability for Engineers and Scientists, Ayyub
& McCuen, 2003.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists,
by H. Kumamoto and E. J. Henley, Second Edition, IEEE Press, NY, 1996.

**GRADING**

Homework 25%, Project 25%, and Two Exams 25% each.

**COURSE OUTLINE**

Chapter 1.
Introduction: Knowledge and Ignorance,
Information Uncertainty in Engineering Systems

Chapter 2.
Risk Methods: Risk Terminology, Risk
Assessment, Risk Management and Control, Risk Acceptance, Risk Communication

Chapter 3.
System Definition and Structure: System
Definition Models, Hierarchical Definitions of Systems, System Complexity

Chapter 4.
Reliability Assessment: Analytical
Reliability Assessment, Empirical Reliability Analysis Using Life Data,
Reliability Analysis of Systems

Chapter 5.
Consequence Assessment: Types,
Cause-Consequence Diagrams, Microeconomic Modeling, Value of Human Life,
Flood Damages, Consequence Propagation

Chapter 6.
Engineering Economics: Time Value of Money,
Interest Models, Equivalence

Chapter 7.
Decision Analysis: Risk Aversion, Risk
Homeostasis, Influence Diagrams and Decision Trees, Discounting Procedures,
Decision Criteria, Tradeoff Analysis, Repair and Maintenance Issues,
Maintainability Analysis, Repair Analysis, Warranty Analysis, Insurance
Models

Chapter 8.
Data Needs for Risk Studies: Elicitation
Methods of Expert Opinions, Guidance

Appendix
A. Basic Probability and Reliability Mathematics:
Set Theory, Boolean Algebra, Mathematics of
Probability, Random Variables, Selected Probability Distributions, Joint
Random Variables, Statistics

**
HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENTS**

Professional presentation of homework assignments is
required. Professional presentation consists of neat and organized solution
of problems on one side of 8.5"x11" papers. The homework assignments are
due one week after they are assigned.

**PROJECT**

Teams of two or three are required to work on a risk
technology or risk issue by developing the following items as applicable:
Title Page, Executive Summary, Table of Contents, Objectives and scope,
Historical development, Methodology summary, Applications, Conclusions,
References and Appendices. Professional presentation of the project report
is required that should consist of neat and organized solutions on one side
of 8.5"x11" papers. Computer-generated plots and printouts are required for
all sample, and summary calculations. Also, teams are required to setup a
web page with all project details and report, and related links. The
project is due on the last day of classes.